"In the past, Japan meant Sony, Toyota, Honda, Canon... But now, as AI is changing the world, where does Japan stand?"

A friend asked me this at a reunion of former Japan exchange students a few days ago.

The table became livelier; everyone had their own thoughts, views, and opinions. I didn’t answer immediately. The answer I wanted to give did not lie in ChatGPT, Gemini, or any other AI model. It began with the lessons I learned from two Japanese professors.

My PhD supervisor in Japan is now 78 years old. While others at his age would be retired with grandchildren, he still comes to the research lab almost every day.

His research team is pursuing a topic that seems so disconnected from AI: recovering phosphorus from waste as a raw material for producing yellow phosphorus (P₄).

It’s a material that most people would never have heard of. However, without it, we wouldn’t have many of the technologies that we use every day. Yellow phosphorus is an important raw material in the production of semiconductors, electronic chips, pharmaceuticals, and various high-tech materials. The global supply is limited under growing pressure as the industry expands rapidly to meet the massive demand from AI.

What made me think wasn’t the topic of research, but more the question behind it. Japanese researchers don’t wait until resources are depleted before starting to find a solution. They begin their research when the crisis hasn’t even occurred yet.

Another time, I asked a leading Japanese expert about materials: "Do Japanese scientists still research rare earth processing technology?"

He smiled.

"Rare earth processing technology is already well established. The factories operate smoothly."

He added: "What we are concerned about is how to create new materials in order to replace rare earth materials."

Researcher analyzing samples with a microscope in a lab setting. Illustration photo by Pexels

When many places are looking for ways to extract resources more efficiently, Japanese researchers are already thinking of a future where they no longer depend on that material.

That is not simply research; it is a mindset.

A few days later, I reread the 7th Science, Technology, and Innovation Basic Plan adopted by the Japanese government on March 27, 2026. I then saw that the stories of my professors were no longer isolated.

In 2026-2030, Japan plans to invest about 60 trillion yen (US$376.48 billion) from the government budget and mobilize 180 trillion yen from both public and private sources for research and development.

The plan clearly identifies AI, semiconductors, quantum technology, biotechnology, and many other strategic fields as significant drivers of the future economy. But what impresses me more than anything is not prioritized technologies, but the goal behind them.

Japan wants to restore the nation's research capacity. They want to build Japan into a nation whose development is built on new technologies. They want to make science and technology the engine of economic growth. They want to train more doctoral researchers, attract top scientists in the world, and develop deeptech startups.

In other words, they are not simply investing to create a new technology. They are investing to sustain the ability to churn out new technologies.

Maybe that's the answer to the question at the meeting.

Japan is not standing outside the AI race. On the contrary, they are investing heavily in AI.

Nevertheless, they understand that AI will one day become a thing of the past, like TVs, digital cameras, or mobile phones - products that used to be symbols of Japan.

The decisive factor in a country's position is not leadership in a specific technology, but having the power to create the next-generation technology.

Maybe it's AI today.

Tomorrow it's new materials.

The day after, it may be energy.

Or a technology whose name we still don't know.

That is why my 78-year-old professor is still continuing his research on yellow phosphorus.

That is why many materials scientists are already thinking of replacing rare earths before the world actually runs out.

Maybe what's worth learning from Japan is not what technologies they are researching, but how they are always preparing for the future.