The total, released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on Wednesday, was the lowest for the January-September period in 18 years, Reuters reported.

He Yafu, an independent demographer in Guangdong province, estimated full-year registrations at 5.88 million to 6.46 million, based on the share of marriages historically recorded in each quarter, the South China Morning Post reported. Even the top of that range would fall short of the 2025 total.

The slide follows a 10.8% jump in 2025, helped by demand for auspicious dates, a new service letting couples register anywhere in the country and local incentives, the newspaper said.

A couple holds up their Chinese marriage certificates. Photo by Reuters

Since most Chinese couples marry before having children, and births outside marriage are rare, marriage registrations closely track births, He said. "A decline in marriage registrations in 2026 will have a negative impact on births in 2027."

China’s population shrank for a fourth straight year in 2025, by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, as births fell to 7.92 million and the birth rate dropped to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people, National Bureau of Statistics data show.