The council considers an extended war confined largely to the Middle East the most likely of four possible scenarios, according to The Nation.

It expects fighting to remain geographically contained but persist for an extended period, rather than end quickly or expand into a broader regional war.

For Thailand, the conflict’s duration could matter as much as its geographic scope, as sustained hostilities put pressure on energy prices and global supply chains.

The council’s Secretary-General Gen. Chaipruak Doungprapat said that while Thailand is outside the immediate conflict zone, it must prepare for possible disruptions to the economy, energy supplies, food security and cybersecurity.

Current global situations are volatile and unpredictable and therefore the council has to be prepared with specific operational plans to cope with the consequences, according to Thai PBS.

Volunteers prepare food to distribute to rescue workers at the site of an under-construction building collapse in Bangkok on April 1, 2025. Photo by AFP

Assistant Professor Dr. Manoch Aree of Srinakharinwirot University, who provided analysis of how the conflict could develop, warned of essential infrastructure’s potential exposure to cyberattacks.

He pointed to a recent incident in Europe in which hackers changed control settings at refrigerated facilities storing food ingredients, damaging supplies.

Academics have advised Thailand’s security agencies to prepare for simultaneous failures of communications networks and digital infrastructure.

Despite concerns over an extended conflict, security officials emphasized that Thailand has sufficient food supplies and households do not need to stockpile essential goods.

Domestic rice and chicken egg production exceeds national consumption needs, while supplies of milk and vegetable oil remain adequate.

The National Security Council is nevertheless considering a longer-term proposal for a national food reserve to improve preparedness for future disruptions.

The council also stressed the need to communicate risks without causing unnecessary public anxiety.

Regarding the Middle East conflict, it outlined three other scenarios: a swift negotiated settlement, which it considers unlikely; a short, geographically limited conflict, assigned a moderate likelihood; and a wider regional war, ranked as the second most likely outcome, which could trigger a severe global energy and economic crisis and major supply chain disruptions.

This week, Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation advised residents to prepare 72-hour emergency kits to cope with natural disasters and unexpected incidents.