In Pahang, a major durian-producing state, some farms have entered the flowering stage in the past two weeks.

But the transition between monsoon conditions and the possible onset of El Nino has resulted in unpredictable weather, with hot, sunny mornings followed by sudden afternoon thunderstorms, according to durian consultant Andrew Yeon.

Flowering is a critical period when sudden rainfall could interfere with pollination and reduce fruit setting.

Difficulties in flowering have also been reported in parts of Johor, another leading producer, amid the unpredictable weather.

Nor Sam Alwi, director-general of the Department of Agriculture, said prolonged hot and dry weather associated with El Nino could threaten durian production, especially in orchards that lack access to dependable water supplies.

While moderate dry spells can encourage flowering, extended periods of drought may have the opposite effect, she explained.

"Prolonged water deficit can adversely affect tree health, fruit retention and yield," she told Malaysian newspaper The Star.

Johor and Pahang warrant close monitoring given their importance to national durian production, she said. The two states collectively account for 60.3% of Malaysia’s output.

Durians are seen on the tree at a durian orchard in Raub of Pahang state, Malaysia, Oct. 16, 2025. Photo by Xinhua via AFP

Peninsular Malaysia has seen its average temperature rise between 1969 and 2025, with an increase of 0.24 degrees Celsius per decade, according to the meteorological department.

This year the heat and dryness have been accompanied by worsening haze.

A durian farmer surnamed Chen told Sin Chew Daily in late September that severe drought, haze and high pollution levels had disrupted the flowering process at his orchard.

His trees were expected to flower in August but the process appeared to have stalled even after buds had formed, he said.

The durians, initially expected to be ready for harvest by the end of January, might not be available until late February or early March, he added.

Farmers said the impact of the haze was milder in previous years as there was still rainfall.

The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming season comes as Malaysia's durian industry has grown substantially in recent years, supported by demand from China, the world’s largest market for the fruit.

Malaysia’s fresh durian shipments to that market have surged from $5 million in 2024, when it gained market access, to $37 million last year. Shipments further surged by 342% year-on-year to $30.26 million in the first half of 2026, according to the South China Morning Post.

Production has been growing to meet the rising demand, with an output of over 600,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia.

Climate-related disruptions could impact fruit yields and also quality, especially for the country’s most popular variety, the Musang King, as it is sensitive to weather conditions.

Eric Chan, president of the Durian Manufacturers Association, said quality defects could result in substantial losses for manufacturers, as problems such as blackened seeds might only be discovered after the fruit had been opened.

He noted that the industry is looking ahead to the main season in June and July next year, though the outlook would depend on how the trees responded to weather conditions in the coming months.

Lim Chin Khee, an adviser to the Durian Academy, which provides training for Malaysian durian growers, said farmers’ efforts can be just as important as weather conditions in determining fruit quality.

Growers could plan ahead by expanding storage reservoirs or installing tube wells, Lim told AP in August, when El Niño was forecast to bring record-high temperatures between March and May next year.

He noted that extreme weather could lower supply and drive up prices.

"So for those farmers (who) are well prepared, actually when any disaster strikes, that is an opportunity."